Trump’s China Visit: What to Expect

Trump and Xi are set for Beijing talks covering trade, tech, Iran, Taiwan and supply chains. Despite low expectations for breakthroughs, the summit may produce limited deals on tariffs, rare earths, chips and energy, aiming to stabilize escalating US-China tensions. Make us preferred on Google Flip Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied US President Donald Trump (L) and China’s President Xi Jinping greet each other as they arrive for talks at the Gimhae Air Base, located next to the Gimhae International Airport in Busan on October 30, 2025. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google US President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to China for a state visit from May 13-15 following an invitation from Xi Jinping, according to China’s foreign ministry . The trip marks the first visit by a sitting US president to China in nearly a decade and takes place amid growing friction between the two powers across trade, technology and geopolitics. Even though expectations for any dramatic breakthroughs are low, as analysts anticipate limited, tactical agreements instead, the summit carries significant meaning for both sides amid escalating economic and geopolitical tensions. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . The US wants economic wins amid the upcoming midterm elections, supply-chain security for rare-earth minerals, and support for its war in Iran; China aims for relief from tech restrictions, protection of its economic interests, and clearer US limits on support for Taiwan. One likely outcome could be an extension of the existing trade truce signed in October 2025 in South Korea, which delayed the unfolding trade war between the two competing powers. A major focus of the summit will be on trade. Trump reportedly wants visible economic concessions from Beijing before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 2026. Both countries are developing a “Board of Trade” mechanism intended to identify goods that can be traded without threatening national security or critical supply chains. Other Topics of Interest Trump Rejects Iran Deal as Oil Price Surges, Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal has deepened a 10-week conflict that is disrupting global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged as shipping remains severely limited and regional tensions escalate. With diplomacy stalled and attacks continuing across the Gulf and Lebanon, the risk of prolonged war and economic fallout is growing, even as Washington looks to China to help pressure Tehran. China is considering large-scale purchases of US agricultural products, including poultry, beef, and non-soybean crops. Reuters reported discussions on China committing to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually for three years. The US is also pushing China to purchase more US energy products such as coal, oil and natural gas. Another important commercial issue involves the aircraft manufacturer Boeing. China has reportedly been negotiating a potentially massive aircraft order involving up to 500 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, plus additional wide-body jets. Reuters said the deal has been delayed for years because of political tensions and US threats to restrict access to crucial aircraft engine parts. A finalized Boeing deal would therefore carry symbolic and economic significance for both governments and could influence negotiations on other contentious issues. Technology and supply-chain controls on critical minerals form another central theme. Beijing wants Washington to ease restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports and chipmaking equipment for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips, as China sees these export controls as attempts to suppress its technological breakthrough. Current US policy on the topic could be described as a strategy of selective restriction combined with tightly controlled easing. However, in January 2026, the US Department of Commerce changed its licensing policy for certain advanced chips exported directly from the US to China. Such a move could enable exports of chips such as the NVIDIA H200, a high-performance chip designed for commercial AI applications. China wants much broader access to the US-made AI technology. Taiwan is also a key manufacturing site for NVIDIA. At the same time, the US is pressuring China to loosen controls on the export of rare-earth minerals. China accounts for roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and an even larger share of refining and magnet processing capacity. The Chinese rare earth restrictions, imposed in April 2025 and slightly loosened in October after the South Korea Summit between Trump and Xi, have greatly disrupted American automotive and aerospace manufacturing sectors. This creates a strategic bargaining dynamic: The US controls advanced AI chips while China dominates critical minerals. Both countries seem to be expanding their economic coercion tools. Washington investigations into Chinese industrial overcapacity and alleged forced labor practices. It also imposed sanctions on a Chinese refinery accused of purchasing Iranian oil and threatened secondary sanctions against Chinese banks linked to those transactions. China responded with new regulations giving authorities broad powers to investigate foreign firms and retaliate against attempts to move supply chains away from China or enforce Western sanctions. The ongoing Iran conflict is another major agenda item. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly wants China to support international efforts to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route. China, however, views the conflict largely as a consequence of the clumsy US foreign policy and is reluctant to appear aligned with Washington militarily or diplomatically. Beijing has encouraged Iran to engage in peace talks with the US in Pakistan, while also acknowledging Iran’s “legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.” China’s motivation is practical: The war threatens its energy imports and its relationships with Gulf states. China is trying to maintain a very delicate balance – protecting its economic interests and regional influence without appearing subordinate to US strategic goals. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had also recently visited Beijing to brief Chinese officials on negotiations with Washington. Taiwan might emerge as the most sensitive geopolitical issue between the two countries during the upcoming summit. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly described Taiwan as “the biggest point of risk” in US-China relations during a conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Since the 1970s, the US has maintained its One-China Policy vis-à-vis Taiwan, while militarily supporting the island. The US policy of strategic ambiguity towards the island has been designed to prevent any military escalation from the Chinese side, which views Taiwan as an integral part of mainland China. In February 2025, however, the US State Department removed language from its Taiwan fact sheet stating that Washington does not support “Taiwan independence,” prompting criticism from Beijing and a positive response from Taipei. Although this may seem like a subtle semantic distinction, wording changes could significantly affect Beijing’s perception of US commitment to Taiwan and broader US security guarantees in Asia. Because China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force, any shift in language could alter regional strategic calculations. The upcoming summit in Beijing is unlikely to deliver a transformational reset in US-China relations. Instead, its primary objective appears to be crisis management: preventing economic competition, technological decoupling and geopolitical rivalry from escalating into open confrontation. The relationship between the world’s two largest powers has become increasingly transactional, driven by reciprocal leverage across trade, AI technology, critical minerals, energy security and military positioning. Even limited agreements – whether on trade purchases, rare earth exports, semiconductor access or maritime security – could help stabilize global markets and reduce short-term tensions. Yet the deeper structural competition between Washington and Beijing remains unresolved. Taiwan, technological supremacy, and competing visions of global order continue to divide the two sides. Ultimately, the significance of the Trump-Xi summit may lie less in what it achieves immediately and more in whether it establishes guardrails that prevent strategic rivalry from spiraling into a far more dangerous phase. Andrew Thompson is an Irish journalist based in Asia, covering regional developments for the Kyiv Post . A long-time supporter of Ukraine’s independence, he previously worked on democratic development projects with international organizations in Kyiv.