Trump and Putin have 'zero instruments' to enforce backroom deal on Ukraine, ex-FM Kuleba tells Kyiv Independent

Ex-Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba speaks to the Kyiv Independent during an interview in downtown Kyiv, on April 14, 2026 (Jason Blevins / Kyiv Independent) Prefer on Google by Kateryna Denisova Caught between Russia's war at home and mounting geopolitical turbulence abroad, Ukraine is unlikely to see a major turnaround anytime soon, says former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. "2026 will be another year Ukraine will have to survive," Kuleba told the Kyiv Independent in an exclusive interview last week. After emerging from its harshest winters in years, marked by relentless Russian strikes on the energy grid, the country is now facing a hostile situation. The war in Iran has further diverted the U.S.'s focus, putting trilateral peace talks between Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington on hold. Outside of government, Kuleba speaks far more openly than serving officials. He sees no imminent breakthrough on the battlefield for either Ukraine or Russia, saying the most thorny issue — occupied territories — remains deadlocked. In an interview with the Kyiv Independent, Kuleba discusses Hungary's political shift and Middle East escalation, argues U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to abandon Ukraine, and warns delaying elections in Ukraine could lead to internal turmoil. This interview was edited for length and clarity. The Kyiv Independent: Hungary opposition leader Peter Magyar secured a landslide victory in the recent elections , bringing Viktor Orban's 16-year rule to an end. What does Magyar's victory mean for Ukraine and its relations with Budapest? Dmytro Kuleba: I believe the biggest difference between Mr. Orban and Mr. Magyar is that the first one liked demonizing Ukraine, while the new leader of Hungary is not prone to doing that. Otherwise, I think both of them are hard negotiators, and Ukraine will have to be very engaged, but it should not expect an easy ride in relations with Hungary. In a nutshell, the new reality is much better than the previous one. It gives chances for fair deals, but I don't expect a radical U-turn in Budapest's stance towards the most critical issue for Ukraine, which is EU accession . When it comes to unlocking the 90 billion euros ($106 billion) of EU loan to Ukraine, I believe that is going to be unlocked very soon (Editor's Note: the loan was unblocked on April 22). It's good news, but the second vital issue, the accession, will require a lot of effort. The Kyiv Independent: With Orban now out of power, how do you think this will affect Russia's ability to influence the EU and its decisions from inside? Dmytro Kuleba: First, Viktor Orban was the frontrunner, but not the sole sympathizer of Russia in the EU. And we shouldn't put all the blame on him. There are still politicians, let's take the Belgian prime minister , for example, who would be happy to seek a different quality of relationship with Russia, let me put it this way, at the expense of Ukraine. There is nothing bad in seeking a better relationship, but it's very bad to do that at the expense of Ukraine. The good news is that those who preferred to stay behind Viktor Orban's back and support him in attacking the European Union, not exclusively on the Ukraine issue, but on a broader agenda, have gotten weaker. And (Slovak) Prime Minister ( Robert) Fico , I think, will be much more constructive now. And Czech Prime Minister (Andrej) Babis will be more engaging and constructive as well. And so will others. Peter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party, at a rally ahead of the election in Györ, Hungary, on April 9, 2026. (Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images) And secondly, I think it is crucial that the anti-European forces in Europe have suffered a landslide loss, defeat in Hungary. It was not only the regime of Viktor Orban that was defeated. If he had won, far-right or radicalized anti-European political forces across Europe would have been more inspired to tackle, to attack their governments, their political elites. Now, I think current European elites can feel relieved, at least temporarily, from that pressure. The Kyiv Independent: How do you think the recent escalation in the Middle East will affect the balance of power? Dmytro Kuleba: Europe has better chances to pull itself together now. There will be less internal problems Europe will have to address, because it will be easier to build consensus also on foreign policy issues. And therefore, I think the defeat of Viktor Orban is a good development for the EU's stance in the world. It doesn't heal all the wounds, but it makes the overall environment much healthier. Otherwise, I do not really see what kind of big role Europe can play in the Middle East today. I would not expect Trump to withdraw from NATO . So I think the Middle East will largely remain a U.S.-Israeli story on one side, and Iran on the other side, with Gulf countries also playing a role in it. But Europe will not get involved, nor will the recent election outcome in Hungary play a major role in defining the dynamics in the Middle East. The Kyiv Independent: Why do you think Trump rejected Ukraine's proposal to help in the Gulf? And why, despite previous accusations of being ungrateful, this move didn't change how Trump sees Ukraine? Dmytro Kuleba: I don't think Trump will dramatically change his stance on Ukraine, whatever we do. It can get better, it can get worse, but you can't change a person like him and make him adopt a completely different view of the world and leaders in the world. The Ukraine relationship has to be divided into two tracks. The first one is the practical cooperation between our military and the American military, and I think there is a certain level of engagement on the issues that are of interest to both the Pentagon and Ukraine's Defense Ministry. Also, there is a second political track, which is, let's say, Trump-Zelensky. U.S. President Donald Trump speaks alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky during a news conference following their meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 28, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images) Trump rejected Zelensky's offer for a very simple reason. He doesn't want to owe anything to Ukraine because he has a different plan. And if you owe something to someone, it means you have to pay them back. And he doesn't want to constrain himself with that kind of commitment. And secondly, I think Trump would even consider it a humiliation to admit that he can't fix Iran without Ukraine's support. There is also an issue of ego that plays a role here. The Kyiv Independent: What do you mean by saying Trump has a "different plan?" Dmytro Kuleba: I believe his line is clear and very consistent. He wants to find a way to press Ukraine into a concession in the form of Ukraine's withdrawal from the rest of the Donbas that Ukraine controls, as a way to establish a ceasefire in Ukraine. And he will continue pushing for this particular scenario. The Kyiv Independent: Why does the U.S. appear to align with Russia in these peace talks and demand concessions only from Ukraine, not Russia? Dmytro Kuleba: I think we are facing a great power thinking here. So Trump represents a superpower, and he considers Russia a great power. And in his view, smaller nations should subjugate themselves to the will of stronger nations. In Trump's world, Ukraine opposing Russian demands is equal to Venezuela opposing American demands. Can he allow that to happen? Clearly not. So he just understands how (Russian President Vladimir) Putin thinks, and he sees the world from exactly the same perspective as President Putin does. If you listen to the official comments, even the most recent one coming from Vice President (JD) Vance , he said that he didn't understand why Ukraine and Russia were fighting over "square kilometers" of land. That's just how they think. American diplomacy always prefers a bad deal to no deal. That's kind of their line of thinking. And in their view, this war really doesn't make sense, and they don't want to see it from Ukraine's perspective. The Kyiv Independent: Despite Trump's rejection, Ukraine is now building relationships and sharing its expertise with a number of Gulf countries on its own. What do you think about Ukraine's growing engagement in the region? Do you see any risks in this? Dmytro Kuleba: President Zelensky played this card wisely, and most importantly, in a very rapid fashion. His reaction was swift. And I think he has won that particular battle. How strategic that relationship with several Gulf countries will eventually be, that's a question that remains open. But we made an offer. The offer was accepted. It's not just a brick in the relationship. I think it's like a good dozen bricks investment in this relationship. But again, diplomacy is always about long play. You can't build a relationship in one day. So it depends on how consistent our cooperation with Gulf countries will be. The start was good. I would even say excellent. Let's hope that it will stay that way. The Kyiv Independent: Previously, you said that Trump had lost the war in Iran. Do you think he might try to recover from that by pushing Ukraine towards a peace deal with Russia? Dmytro Kuleba: Yes. I think President Trump will be looking for foreign policy wins in the coming months ahead of the midterm elections. And when I turn my head around, I see only two places on the map where he may try to do it, which are Cuba and us. So I think he will make an attempt. I don't think he's going to succeed. But we will have some more turbulent meetings, calls, posts on Truth Social media, and moves from Washington. The Kyiv Independent:  What might happen in Cuba? Dmytro Kuleba: I'm not a wizard to say how the goal will be achieved. But Cuba is extremely vulnerable, and I know what he will try to achieve. He will try to topple the regime on the island, as he did in Iran. But the most obvious way would be a blockade. But on the other hand, we saw that he allowed Russian vessels to make it to Cuba and bring some oil to relieve the energy crisis. Let's see how they handle it. So I know the goal, but I do not know how specifically he is going to do that. The Kyiv Independent: It's been almost a year since Ukraine and Russia, with U.S. mediation, started holding a number of rounds of peace talks, yet the progress has been mainly limited to prisoner exchanges . In your opinion, do these negotiations hold any real value, and do you expect any meaningful progress in the near future? Dmytro Kuleba: Prisoner swap is a value in itself, and it's worth any kind of negotiations, meetings, or calls. However, we also have to admit that before these talks started, Ukraine and Russia had conducted prisoner swaps on a regular basis, and we did not need this kind of cover-up of talks to see that process going. So prisoner exchanges are something that both sides are interested in, and therefore I don't think that they can't exist without peace talks. Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. hold peace talks in Geneva on Feb. 17, 2026. (Rustem Umerov / Telegram) Having said this, I believe these negotiations have delivered two important outcomes. The first one is a clarity on where the United States stands on the so-called security guarantees. And the second, I believe, is a clearer understanding in both Kyiv and Moscow of what is possible and impossible for both sides to do. So do these negotiations make sense? Yes. Are they bringing us closer to a ceasefire? I'm afraid we're not there yet. The Kyiv Independent: What would happen if the U.S. were to abandon Ukraine, stop all diplomatic talks, and withdraw its intelligence support? Would Ukraine be able to continue to fight? Dmytro Kuleba: It will have to. I don't think the United States will abandon Ukraine. What Trump can't afford is making a move that will allow everyone to blame him for the skyrocketing death toll in Ukraine and the massive destruction of civilian infrastructure. That's not what he's looking for, especially ahead of the midterm elections. That is the blame he wants to avoid. So I do not think he's going to abandon Ukraine, not because he likes us or because he's not willing to do so, but just because he can't afford that politically. However, it is true that the only two major leverage points he has on Ukraine are intelligence sharing and interceptors. I think intelligence sharing is less critical, but interceptors are a big deal. The question that I have is whether the United States will be selling any interceptors to Europeans so that they could be delivered to Ukraine in the coming months. Because if they don't, of course, our airspace will be exposed and our civilian infrastructure will be exposed to Russian attacks . So that's a real thing. On intelligence, I think it will be damaging, but we can live with that. On interceptors, it will be severely damaging, and we will have to live with that. The Kyiv Independent: Russia continues to push for Ukraine to pull out of Donbas . The U.S. also wants Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas before the security guarantees are in place. And for Ukraine, this is unacceptable for many reasons. Do you see any way forward in resolving the territorial issue? Dmytro Kuleba: No. I think we are deadlocked. Both. The Kyiv Independent: You said that Ukraine has enough resources to continue the war, but not enough to change the trajectory of the war. What does Ukraine need to change this trajectory? Is this even possible? Dmytro Kuleba: I continue to believe so. I don't see that coming in the foreseeable future. I think Russia will continue to have resources to wage a war at the current scale, but it will not be able to break through. I will take the risk by saying that there will be no major developments on the battlefield until the end of the year. I expect major developments in the air, not on the ground. And basically, we are in a situation where both Russia and Ukraine have enough resources to sustain the current trajectory of the war, seen from both perspectives, but none of us can actually change it. The Kyiv Independent: President Zelensky consistently said that to resolve the territorial issues, Putin should be involved in the talks. Why do you think Ukraine is seeking this meeting, and can it bring any outcomes? Dmytro Kuleba: Zelensky has been very consistent on that. Since day one of the war, he has been urging Putin to hold a summit, and as far as I understand, the president, I think the logic behind this is very clear. He believes that Putin is the only one who can make a decision, therefore you have to talk to the decision-maker, not to those who report to the decision-maker. And that's what he is willing to achieve. But I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. The Kyiv Independent: What can persuade Putin to stop the war against Ukraine? Dmytro Kuleba: Stalemate on the front line and suffocating the Russian economy. As we speak, I believe the chances of a relative stalemate on the front line are more likely than seeing the Russian economy suffocate as an outcome of the surging oil prices resulting from the war in Iran. The Kyiv Independent: Russia and the U.S. are reportedly negotiating an economic deal . This process is led by Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev. Could both the U.S. and Europe eventually return to "business as usual" with Russia in the near future? Dmytro Kuleba: No, in the near future, that is not going to happen. It is far easier to lift some targeted sanctions against Russian companies than to make a broad economic deal with Russia. So I don't believe that we are going to witness a big business deal between Russia and the United States anytime soon. They will negotiate. I mean, Dmitriev is very good at selling projects worth trillions or billions. Witkoff is an excellent buyer, but that is still not enough for the deal to happen. I don't think it's going to take place. The Kyiv Independent: Do you think that the U.S. and Russia could reach an agreement that undermines Ukraine's interests behind Ukraine's back ? Dmytro Kuleba: They can, but none of them have leverage to enforce that deal as long as Ukraine continues to address its weaknesses. And secondly, as long as Ukraine and Europe stand together. The key to peace is not in Washington, it's in Europe and in Kyiv. As long as we are strong and together, Putin and Trump may make any deal they want, but they will have zero instruments to enforce it. Ex-Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba speaks to the Kyiv Independent during an interview in downtown Kyiv, on April 14, 2026 (Jason Blevins / Kyiv Independent) The Kyiv Independent: In a recent interview, you said that Ukraine needs elections . Why do you think so? Do you disagree with the risks everyone is talking about that the elections can't take place until the ceasefire is in place? Dmytro Kuleba: My view is very simple. First, the risks of not holding elections are much higher than the risks of holding elections. I'm not trying to say that holding elections in the course of the war is an easy right. It's something that you can do. Of course, it's associated with numerous risks. But as a country, we have to remain vibrant. We have to reinforce our governance. And to get there, we need a new parliament. You've seen recently, our parliament, the choice is between having a paralyzed parliament in the middle of the war, or having elections. This is the choice we are making. Secondly, those who say that we should wait until the war is over for elections to take place, I fully agree with them. But I have one simple question: What if the war lasts four more years? Which I hate to presume. I want it to be over today, not even tomorrow. But it's been four years. And what if there are four more years of war ahead of us? Are we going to avoid making our choices? For how long? What makes you believe that we will have an efficient system of governance for the next four years if we do not make changes? The Kyiv Independent: If there is this scenario that Ukraine does not hold elections in four years, in two years, what would this mean? What can trigger the elections? Dmytro Kuleba: There is a beautiful word in the world of physics and philosophy. It's called entropy. Entropy is the exhaustion of energy that leads to chaos. The system will simply begin to disintegrate. You will not be able to take the laws needed to make our country stronger. You will not have a government capable of making decisions that make Ukraine stronger. This is what is going to happen. There is no other issue on which I desperately want to be wrong. But I think we should start thinking at least two steps ahead. Not what is going to happen tomorrow, but what is going to happen in two years' time. We can keep things as they are and wait until the situation deteriorates to the point when we will have to make critical choices. Or we can try to address issues in a planned and strategic manner. The Kyiv Independent: After four years of the full-scale war, how do you view the state of Ukrainian society? Is there still a will to keep fighting? Dmytro Kuleba: Yes, I think so. I don't think the will to resist the Russian invasion is gone. I don't expect it to be broken. To be honest, I was very agitated in the course of the winter. I thought that we were on the brink of collapse as a society because of all these severe hardships we had to endure. But I believe God loves us, because he helped us to go through it. And once again prove the strength of Ukrainian society. I think it's actually our biggest advantage. The strength of our society is the biggest advantage of Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent: Looking ahead, what do you think this year holds for Ukraine? And what might be the biggest test? Dmytro Kuleba: The biggest test will be the weather in summer and then in winter. Because peaking summer temperatures are as dangerous for the energy grid as freezing winter temperatures. I guess there will be more attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid somewhere in the middle of the summer. And then there will be another winter, which I do not expect to be a good one. 2026 will be another year Ukraine will have to survive. Hello, this is Kateryna, the author of this piece. The Kyiv Independent is powered by its readers and viewers. It's thanks to their support that we're able to bring you voices like Dmytro Kuleba. If you'd like to see more reporting like this, please consider joining our community today . Thank you! Kateryna Denisova is the reporter for the Kyiv Independent, specializing in Ukrainian politics. Based in Kyiv, she focuses on domestic affairs, parliament, and social issues. Kateryna began her career in journalism in 2020 and holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Before joining the team, she worked at the NV media outlet. Kateryna also studied at journalism schools in the Czech Republic and Germany.