Russia Lines Up Another ‘Doomsday’ Sarmat Missile Test Ahead of Symbolic May 9 Window

Russia appears to be preparing a new test of its troubled Sarmat intercontinental missile, with aviation warnings and restricted zones suggesting a launch around the symbolic May 9 Victory Day period. The system, plagued by repeated failures, has yet to enter service despite years of development and earlier Kremlin promises. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied This grab made from a handout video footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry on April 20, 2022 shows the launching of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile at Plesetsk testing field, Russia. Russian President said that Russia has successfully tested the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, saying the next-generation capable of carrying nuclear charges will make Kremlin’s enemies “think twice.” (Photo by Handout / Russian Defence Ministry / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Russia appears to be gearing up for another test of its troubled intercontinental ballistic missile “Sarmat,” according to aviation warnings and satellite-range restrictions that point to preparations around the symbolic May 9 Victory Day period. The missile – touted by President Vladimir Putin as a cornerstone of Russia’s next-generation nuclear arsenal – has reportedly suffered repeated setbacks, including failed launches and explosions during testing phases in 2024–2025. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . On May 6, authorities in Russia’s Kamchatka region warned of upcoming missile activity at the Kura test range , banning any civilian presence or movement near the area. A day later, Russia issued aviation advisories known as NOTAMs, urging aircraft to avoid multiple restricted zones. These included areas in the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, regions near the Kura range, and the Dombarovsky Strategic Missile Forces base in Orenburg region. Analysts, cited by The Moscow Times , say the pattern of closures strongly resembles preparations for a long-range missile test. “There are several NOTAMs at Kura, matching this one and also expected SARMAT test from Dombarovskiy, with partly overlapping time-frames,” said Thord Are Iversen, an independent defence analyst.  French defence analyst Etienne Marcuz of the Foundation for Strategic Research added that the timing may be politically significant, with a launch window reportedly open between May 8 and May 11. Other Topics of Interest Latvia Hands Russia Protest Note After Drones Enter Its Airspace Latvia said several drones crossed from Russia into its airspace, with two reportedly crashing near Rēzekne and one sparking a fire at an oil storage facility. “The launch could occur just before or during May 9th, a highly symbolic date in Russia marking Victory Day,” he said. The suspected test preparations come as Russia faces increasing scrutiny over the missile’s troubled development. Marcuz and other experts say recent Sarmat trials have ended in early-stage failures – including one reported launch in which the missile crashed shortly after lift-off, leaving a large impact crater and visible atmospheric discoloration. In another incident in 2024, the system reportedly exploded inside its silo during testing at the Plesetsk facility. Despite more than a decade of development, Sarmat has yet to enter operational service, despite earlier Kremlin promises that it would be deployed by 2020. The setbacks come at a politically sensitive moment, as Ukraine continues to strike deep into Russian territory with drones, forcing Moscow to scale back or cancel some traditional military displays. Marcuz suggest the Kremlin may be seeking to project strength through high-profile weapons testing rather than large public parades. Sarmat was designed to replace the Soviet-era R-36M2 “Voyevoda” missiles – known in NATO classification as “Satan” – which have formed the backbone of Russia’s heavy nuclear deterrent since the Cold War. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia still operates only a limited number of these aging systems, some of which date back to the late 1980s. The delay in replacing them raises questions about the long-term reliability of Russia’s land-based nuclear deterrent, analysts say. Russia’s strategic missile forces are estimated to include roughly 333 land-based intercontinental missiles, with the majority being newer “Yars” systems capable of carrying multiple warheads. Older “Topol” missiles, several dozen remaining “Voyevoda” systems, and newer “Avangard” hypersonic units also form part of the arsenal. In addition, Russia maintains submarine-launched ballistic missiles as part of its nuclear triad. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization since 1995. Its international market reach of 97% outside of Ukraine makes it truly Ukraine’s Global – and most reliable – Voice.