EXPLAINER: ‘Shoot the Archer, not the Arrow’ – How Ukraine Hunts Russian Ballistic Missiles

The White House cut Ukraine off from air defense tech that protected Ukrainian cities from deadly long-range strikes, so Kyiv switched to hunting and killing Russian ballistic missiles in Russia. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied DJI Matrice 300 reconnaissance drones, bought in the frame of program 'The Army of Drones' are seen during test flights in the Kyiv region on August 2, 2022, prior to being sent to the front line. 'The Army of Drones' is a project initiated by the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Digital Transformation which is a comprehensive program in which organisation purchases drones, repair them, and train operators. (Photo by Sergei SUPINSKY / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Why are Russian ballistic missiles Ukraine’s biggest air defense problem? Two reasons – Russian ballistic missiles are a powerful weapon, and the main system countries use to defend themselves against ballistic missiles is made by the US, and the US has cut Ukraine off from supplies of interceptor missiles that the defense system uses. The reason a ballistic missile is hard to stop is that it reaches speeds of Mach 6-7, and climbs to altitudes of up to 50 km (31 miles, 164k ft) before diving in on a target ballistically. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . Russia’s tactical ballistic missile is called an Iskander-M. It is big: 7.3 m (24 ft) in length, 0.92 m (3 ft) in diameter, and weighing approximately 3,800-4,615 kg (8,377-10,154 lbs) at launch. It moves around on a semi-truck-sized transporter called a 9P78-1 transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), and is operated by a crew of three. They can bring the missile to readiness to launch in 15 minutes or less. That mobility and its range mean the Iskander-M is difficult to find and hit before it launches. The missile has a range of 400-500 km (250-310 miles), and it is rated to reliably hit within 3-30 meters (10-100 ft) of whatever it’s fired at. The missile’s warheads weigh between 480-700 kg (1,058-1,543 lbs), and can be configured for high-explosive fragmentation, cluster/submunition, bunker-penetrating, fuel-air explosive, and EMP blasts. In a typical strike against Ukraine using the Iskander-M, Russia fires between 10 and 15 missiles in a night. A direct hit by an Iskander-M in most cases would easily destroy a multi-story reinforced concrete building and probably would destroy a hardened command bunker. Other Topics of Interest Kyiv’s Tuapse Strikes Caused Over $300M in Oil Infrastructure Damage, Plus Export Losses Kyiv says a series of mid-April through May 1 attacks on Tuapse directly cost Russia over $300 million in damaged Black Sea port and refinery facilities, and much more in lost oil export revenue. Ukraine leads the world in interceptor drone technology, but a ballistic missile like an Iskander-M flies too high and fast to be intercepted by a drone. Only a few countries manufacture interceptor missile systems, and the only country that exports the system in quantity is the US. The system is called Patriot, and it uses two types of missiles – an older, less-effective interceptor missile, the PAC-2, and a newer, more-effective interceptor missile, the PAC-3. According to open sources, Ukraine, since it first deployed donated Patriot systems in April 2023, has received systems and interceptor missiles donated by the US, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Israel. It has probably received about 600 interceptor missiles of mixed types. The combination of continuing Iskander-M missile strikes over the next three years, and a near-total US cut-off of more interceptor missile deliveries starting in February 2025 has left Ukraine’s Patriot batteries disastrously short of ammunition, and left Ukraine practically unable to stop any Iskander-M missile launched at Ukraine by Russia. As has been the case for practically all successful Ukrainian responses to Russian invasion, the solution has been home-grown and focused on getting maximum results while conserving resources. A simple example is Patriot fire discipline. When trained by American instructors, Ukrainian Patriot operators were taught to fire two PAC-2/3 missiles at any target to guarantee a hit; common practice in Ukrainian air defense forces is the launch of a single missile so that ammo remains for the next engagement. Meanwhile, movement of critical production and headquarters underground – sometimes into existing Cold War-era facilities and sometimes by digging new ones – has sapped some effectiveness from Russia’s Iskander-M strikes against Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force, operating fighter aircraft that are prime Iskander-M targets, routinely shifts operating bases. But the heart of Ukraine’s effort to protect itself against Russian ballistic missiles, which it usually doesn’t have the means to intercept, has been within the country’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), whose long-range strikes in 2025 began systematically targeting not just Islander-M missile launchers but the weapon’s entire supply chain: production facilities, component factories and fuel refineries, sometimes thousands of kilometers deep inside Russia. In February 2026, Ukraine, probably thanks to increased supplies of drones and better targeting intelligence from European allies, visibly accelerated the pace of attacks against Russian ballistic missile production capacity. Based on evidence, the best answer is “partially.” At the start of 2025, Russia announced plans to ramp up Iskander-M missile production to about 800 missiles a year, or about 65 missiles a month. During that year, the actual Iskander-M number of missiles that Russia launched at Ukraine was about 600 missiles. In January 2026, a record 91 ballistic missiles were fired, but a portion of them – between a quarter and a third – were old anti-aircraft missiles, according to Ukrainian Air Force counts. The launch count in February 2026 was about 40 ballistic missiles of all types as Russia tried and failed to destroy Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure. Since then, the pace has remained roughly the same, at about 50 ballistic missiles, of all types, fired at Ukraine by Russia both in March and April. Stocks of ballistic missiles held in reserve are a Russian Federation state secret, so a significant portion of Russian Iskander-M production may be filling out those reserves. However, if Russian military use of Iskander-M missiles is consistent with the way the Russian military has expended tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and even men in its war in Ukraine, the more probable explanation is that overall Russian Iskander-M production is around 40-50 missiles a month, or about two-thirds of the desired production. May 5, 2026 – At least five Ukrainian Flamingo heavy drones/cruise missiles struck and damaged the VNIIR-Progress factory in Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, some 1,600 km (1,000 miles) from the Ukrainian border, in a night-time strike. The facility manufactures military electronics and components for Iskander-M missiles. Locals reported hearing at least two explosions. During the morning, Ukrainian propeller-driven drones attacked the facility again. The factory had been fitted with an armored roof, which was holed by the cruise missiles. The follow-up propeller drones set the factory on fire. This was a follow-up strike to an attack taking place in mid-February. May 02, 2026 – Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a launch site used by Iskander-M operators near the village of Druzhne, in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s General Staff claimed the system was destroyed along with associated radars. The attack took place about 300 km (186 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. April 28, 2026 – Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) claimed and published video of drone strikes hitting an Iskander-M missile storage site near the village Ovrazhky, some 40 km (25 miles) east of the Crimean capital Simferopol and about 250 km (155 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. Images showed drones penetrating reinforced concrete shelters, fires and probable damage. April 03, 2026 – Ukrainian drones hit the Morozov Explosives Plant, a Leningrad region facility producing rocket fuel and propellant components for ballistic missiles, including Iskander-M. Damage to buildings reported, distance from Ukraine-controlled territory about 1,000 km (620 miles). April 16, 2026 – Ukraine’s drone forces claimed hitting and destroying a Bastion-M system, a weapon firing long-range, precision-guided rockets. Strike purportedly took place in Crimea, with limited corroboration, 200-300 km (124-186 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. April 08, 2026 – Ukraine’s General Staff claims and publishes imagery showing a Bastion-M system destroyed by drones near the village of Sofiivka in occupied Crimea. Nearby energy infrastructure targets were hit as well, 250 km (155 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. March 25, 2026 – Ukrainian drones attack Russia’s Plesetsk Cosmodrome, Arkhangelsk Oblast. This is a space/missile launch site and space rocket control facility. The strike seemed timed to interfere with launch preparations; no confirmed direct hits were reported – 1,200-1,400 km (745-870 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. March 24, 2026 – Ukrainian cruise missiles identified variously as British Storm Shadow and French SCALP missiles, and drones hit and destroy portions of a moving Bastion-M system and support vehicles in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s General Staff claims a launcher was destroyed along with two Zircon hypersonic missiles. 200-300 km (124-186 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. March 17, 2026 – Ukraine’s General Staff reports and publishes imagery of drones attacking a Bastion-M firing position in occupied Crimea near the village of Verkhnekurhanne. The Russian unit identified was the 15th Coastal Missile Brigade, an element known to operate in the region. Damage to launcher and associated vehicles, 250 km (155 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. March 14, 2026 – Ukrainian drones hit an Iskander-M launcher preparing to fire near the village of Vyshneve, in occupied Crimea, and a missile storage site near the village of Kurortne. General Staff claims, images published, some imagery geo-located, 200-300 km (124-186 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. March 10, 2026 – Ukraine uses Britain-manufactured Storm Shadow cruise missiles to hit and damage the Kremniy EL Plant in Bryansk, western Russia. The facility manufactures rocket fuel components, explosives, and missile electronics. Major damage to workshops was reported, local social media reported multiple ground explosions, 400-450 km (250-280 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. March 06, 2026 – Ukrainian drones attack an Iskander-M launcher and associated vehicles in occupied Crimea, results unknown, images published by SBS, 200-300 km (124-186 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. Feb. 23, 2026 – Ukraine’s General Staff reports and publishes imagery of drones attacking a Bastion-M firing position in occupied Crimea. Specific location is not clear. The Russian unit identified was 15th Coastal Missile Brigade, an element known to operate in the region. Damage to vehicles and fires shown, 250 km (155 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. Feb. 21, 2026 – Ukrainian Flamingo-5 heavy drones/cruise missiles attack the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, in the Udmurt Republic (Udmurtia), Russia’s Volga region. The facility produces Iskander-M ballistic missiles and components, as confirmed by fire in production workshops; injuries were reported. Satellite imagery showed damage, 1,300 km (808 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Feb. 18 2026 – Ukrainian drones attack the VNIIR-Progress factory in Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russia. The facility manufactures electronics and navigation components for missiles and drones, as well as antennae and control components for military use, including for Iskander-M guidance systems, fires reported, 950-1,050 km (590-650 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Feb. 17, 2026 – Ukrainian drones hit an Iskander-M storage site in Pasichne/Bilohirsk Raion in occupied Crimea. Other targets, including a Ka-27 helicopter, struck and damaged. Explosions and damage reported, 200-300 km (124-186 miles) from Ukraine-controlled territory. Feb. 07, 2026 – Ukraine’s SBU reports and publishes video of its special operations drone group “A” conducting drone strikes on the Redkino Experimental Plant, in Russia’s Tver region. The facility produces missile rocket fuel and propellant components. Massive fire reported, 600-750 km (373-466 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Editor’s note: This section was developed from attack records compiled by Kyiv Post from open sources. Stefan Korshak is the Kyiv Post Senior Defense Correspondent. He is from Houston Texas, is a Yalie and since the mid-1990s has worked as correspondent/photographer for newswire, newspapers, television and radio. He has reported from five wars but most enjoys doing articles on wildlife and nature. You can read his weekly blog on the Russo-Ukraine War on Facebook, Substack and Medium. His new book on the 2022 Siege of Mariupol is available on Amazon UK and Amazon US .